North American Pellet Export Forecast

North American pellet exports will have increased to an all-time high in 2018. U.S. pellet exports are projected to increase to 6.2 million tonnes, up 20 per cent from 2017. Canadian pellet exports are projected to increase to 2.4 million tonnes, up 12.6 per cent from a year prior. FutureMetrics projects that U.S. exports will increase to 8.5 million tonnes in 2023 while Canadian exports will increase to 3.7 million metric tonnes.

With pricing and demand growth strong in industrial wood pellet markets, we expect to see new major industrial pellet mills to be developed in the U.S. South after several years of measured growth. In addition, the U.S. Pacific Northwest is well positioned to supply some volume to rapidly growing Asian pellet markets. Maine is poised to become a new significant exporter.

In western Canada, new growth will likely be more measured. Forest fire losses and the end of the high harvest rates from dead stands killed by the mountain pine beetle are affecting sawmill production and thus sawmill residual output. Pellet producers must procure forest residuals to maintain production rates. Eastern Canada will see the development of several small- to medium-sized industrial pellet mills as sawmillers in those regions look for markets for their residuals.